Application Volume vs. Token Dilution: Auditing Economic Value Capture on NEAR Protocol
Annual Protocol Issuance vs. Execution Gas Destruction
Exact 365-day accounting comparing block-header supply expansion against receipt execution outcomes (execution_outcomes.tokens_burnt) and non-overlapping transaction-conversion burns (transactions.receipt_conversion_tokens_burnt) in bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.
Across 365 full days from November 3, 2025 to November 2, 2026, total supply expanded by +31,700,464.54 NEAR (+86,850.59 NEAR/day) while all-shard receipt execution gas burns totaled 569,180.84 NEAR (1,559.40 NEAR/day) and non-overlapping transaction-conversion burns totaled 44,122.89 NEAR (120.88 NEAR/day), meaning gas burning offset between 1.377% and 1.898% of derived gross issuance (a 52.7:1 to 72.6:1 issuance-to-burn ratio).
Gross Issuance = Net Supply Expansion + Burn by construction, Derived Gross Issuance is 32,143,014.01 NEAR at the 70% net-execution + 100% tx-conversion burn floor (442,549.47 NEAR, 1.377% offset), 32,269,645.38 NEAR at the receipt-execution baseline (569,180.84 NEAR, 1.764% offset), and 32,313,768.27 NEAR using 100% combined gross gas burnt (613,303.73 NEAR, 1.898% offset).
1.00 NEAR destroyed via base-layer execution fees across all shards, protocol issuance created 56.69 NEAR.
3,130.40 NEAR), execution gas burns offset only 3.54% of average daily gross issuance (88,409.99 NEAR/day).
$1,617 to $15,820 USD/day alongside spot price fluctuations. Separately, Allium/DefiLlama reports $1.21M in 366-day gross gas fees ($3,304/day).
[SQL SOURCE] BigQuery Partition-Pruned Queries Behind Exhibits 1A – 1D (`data/bq_annual_supply_checkpoints.csv` & `data/bq_annual_gas_burned.csv`) EXPAND +
-- Query 1A: Daily Opening & Closing Supply Checkpoints (734 rows; 2025-11-02 to 2026-11-03)
WITH daily_blocks AS (
SELECT
block_date, block_height, block_timestamp_utc,
CAST(total_supply AS BIGNUMERIC) / 1e24 AS total_supply_near,
ROW_NUMBER() OVER(PARTITION BY block_date ORDER BY block_height ASC) AS rn_first,
ROW_NUMBER() OVER(PARTITION BY block_date ORDER BY block_height DESC) AS rn_last
FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.blocks`
WHERE block_date BETWEEN '2025-11-02' AND '2026-11-03'
)
SELECT block_date, block_height, block_timestamp_utc, total_supply_near,
IF(rn_first = 1, 'DAY_OPEN', 'DAY_CLOSE') AS checkpoint_type
FROM daily_blocks WHERE rn_first = 1 OR rn_last = 1 ORDER BY block_height ASC;
-- Query 1B: Daily All-Shard Execution Gas Burned (365 rows; 2025-11-03 to 2026-11-02)
SELECT
block_date,
COUNT(1) AS execution_outcome_count,
SUM(gas_burnt) / 1e12 AS total_tgas_burnt,
SUM(CAST(tokens_burnt AS BIGNUMERIC)) / 1e24 AS total_tokens_burnt_near
FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.execution_outcomes`
WHERE block_date BETWEEN '2025-11-03' AND '2026-11-02'
GROUP BY block_date ORDER BY block_date ASC;
tokens_burnt across all receipt execution outcomes in crypto_near_mainnet_us.execution_outcomes (3,397,553,688 outcomes); it does not claim independent measurement of slashing penalties or non-execution burn mechanisms. In addition, the earlier Report 1 checkpoints (Opening Block 170,935,000 at 1,278,926,787.51 NEAR, reported in Report 1 tables; Closing Block 222,740,000 at 1,310,627,218.40 NEAR, cached in data/supply_checkpoints.json; and Post-Halving Block 171,000,000 at +86,816.32 NEAR/day over 364.545 days) are preserved in Exhibit 3B. Active mainnet consensus operates under Protocol Version 86 (burnt_gas_reward = 0.30; HSP-027 / PV 88 is in codebase but not active in consensus).
Cross-Chain Intents Revenue & Protocol Vault Accumulation
Evaluating official NEAR Intents fee schedules and reported 30-day revenue retention against verified onchain sweep receipts and the block 222,873,598 state snapshot of buybacks.multisignature.near.
While NEAR Intents reports $2.09M in 30-day retained protocol revenue (34.9% of $5.99M gross user fees on $2.45B volume) and sampled onchain receipts over October 27 to November 2, 2026 measure 10,089.05 NEAR/day swept from intents.near into buybacks.multisignature.near (which holds 2,161,449.13 NEAR as a snapshot at block 222,873,598), zero tokens have been burned from the vault.
| Intents Fee Tier / Metric | Rate / Amount | Share / Status |
|---|---|---|
| Base Protocol Fee (Onchain Contract) | 0.0001% (0.01 bps / 1 pip) | Official Docs |
| 1Click Stablecoin / Same-Asset Route (with API Key) | +0.01% (1 bp) | Official Docs |
| Standard 1Click Cross-Asset Swap (with API Key) | +0.20% (20 bps) | Official Docs |
| Reported 30-Day Gross User Fees (on $2.45B Vol) | $5,990,000.00 | 100.0% (24.45 bps) |
├ Solver Execution Costs & Partner appFees |
$3,900,000.00 | 65.1% (Bypass) |
| └ Reported Net Protocol Retention | $2,090,000.00 | 34.9% Retained |
| Vault Balance Snapshot (Block 222,873,598) | 2,161,449.13 NEAR | Verified Snapshot |
| Detected Stablecoin / FT Holdings in Vault | 0.00 USD | No Stablecoins |
| Detected Staking Pool Allocations / Vault Burns | 0 Staked / 0 Burned | Idle Reserve |
2,161,449.13 NEAR balance is an onchain snapshot at block 222,873,598 (2026-11-03T13:03:36Z), not a full-year historical fact. Earlier Report 3 recorded 2,159,199.89 NEAR after 230.13 days of account age (9,382.52 NEAR/day balance-to-age ratio, which is not a measured historical inflow rate).
70,623.38 NEAR (10,089.05 NEAR/day; raw float sum 70,623.85 NEAR), with 0 outgoing transfers and 0 tokens burned. Also note: intents.near locks 132,305 NEAR in storage-backed locked balance while state exists.
2,175,721.49 NEAR across 3,150 transfers: 76.18% (1,657,360.75 NEAR) came from intents.near sweeps, while 23.44% (510,068.00 NEAR) was an internal treasury transfer from 1csfundsadmin.sputnik-dao.near (moving existing NEAR between accounts without creating market demand). Total outflows: 12,025.00 NEAR (3 transfers); 0 DEX swaps, 0 staking delegations, and 0 tokens burned.
intents.near storage-locked collateral grew from 32,639.31 NEAR (Nov 3, 2025) to 132,202.86 NEAR (Nov 2, 2026), committing +99,563.55 NEAR (+272.78 NEAR/day). Separately, in crypto_near_mainnet_us, transactions.receipt_conversion_tokens_burnt (44,122.89 NEAR) and execution_outcomes.tokens_burnt (569,180.84 NEAR, of which intents.near is 24,213.13 NEAR / 4.25%) are non-overlapping tables totaling 613,303.73 NEAR ($1,200,080.02 at 00:00 UTC prices, within -0.19% of Allium's $1,202,380.00 gross fee series, which measures gross fees before the 30% contract reward split).
[RPC & SQL SOURCE] Onchain Snapshot Verification & BigQuery Transfer Audit (`data/buybacks_txns.json` & `scripts/fetch_intents_volume.py`) EXPAND +
-- 1. Mainnet RPC Account Snapshot at Block 222,873,598 (2026-11-03T13:03:36Z)
curl -s -X POST https://rpc.mainnet.near.org -H "Content-Type: application/json" -d '{
"jsonrpc": "2.0", "id": 1, "method": "query",
"params": {"request_type": "view_account", "block_id": 222873598, "account_id": "buybacks.multisignature.near"}
}'
-- Result: amount = 2161449129526092621826932205769 yoctoNEAR (2,161,449.13 NEAR); locked = 0; storage_usage = 356,468 bytes
-- Fastnear FT Check: https://api.fastnear.com/v0/account/buybacks.multisignature.near/ft -> 0 stablecoins detected
-- Fastnear Staking Check: https://api.fastnear.com/v0/account/buybacks.multisignature.near/staking -> pools: [] (0 staked)
-- 2. BigQuery Native NEAR Transfer Verification into buybacks.multisignature.near
SELECT
block_date,
receipt_predecessor_account_id AS sender_account,
receipt_receiver_account_id AS receiver_account,
COUNT(1) AS transfer_count,
SUM(CAST(JSON_EXTRACT_SCALAR(args, '$.deposit') AS BIGNUMERIC)) / 1e24 AS total_transferred_near
FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.action_receipt_actions`
WHERE block_date BETWEEN '2026-10-27' AND '2026-11-02'
AND receipt_receiver_account_id = 'buybacks.multisignature.near'
AND action_kind = 'TRANSFER'
GROUP BY block_date, sender_account, receiver_account
ORDER BY block_date ASC;
$2.45B) and fee figures ($5.99M gross / $2.09M retained) are reported estimates, not independently verified cash receipts. The official NEAR Intents Explorer API (/api/v0/transactions) requires a partner JWT (HTTP 400: MISSING_TOKEN when unauthenticated in scripts/fetch_intents_volume.py). Offchain CEX or OTC spot purchases cannot be proven from onchain transfer receipts alone.
DeFi TVL, Endogenous Collateral & Identifiable LST Overlap
Deconstructing third-party reported protocol breakdowns (DefiLlama) across Burrow (contract.main.burrow.near), Meta Pool (stNEAR), and LiNEAR Protocol (LiNEAR) to separate exogenous capital from recursive NEAR staking loops.
Third-party reported protocol breakdowns show that 93.75% ($148.76M) of Burrow's $158.67M lending collateral consists of native wNEAR and NEAR-backed liquid staking tokens, including $80.73M of stNEAR and LiNEAR that directly overlaps with reported Meta Pool and LiNEAR liquid staking positions, leaving $9.92M (6.25%) in non-NEAR, non-LST collateral.
| Collateral Asset Class | Category | Reported USD | Share | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| rNEAR (Rhea / Ref Blended) | Endogenous LST | $56,492,431.49 | 35.60% | |
| LiNEAR (LiNEAR Protocol) | Endogenous LST (Overlap) | $50,013,407.81 | 31.52% | |
| stNEAR (Meta Pool) | Endogenous LST (Overlap) | $30,712,287.74 | 19.36% | |
| wNEAR (Wrapped Native NEAR) | Endogenous Native | $11,539,881.62 | 7.27% | |
| ZEC, AURORA & WOO | Non-NEAR Volatile | $5,442,272.22 | 3.43% | |
| USDT, USDC, DAI, FRAX, sFRAX | Exogenous Stablecoins | $3,570,965.72 | 2.25% | |
| WBTC, nBTC & ETH | Exogenous Majors | $902,071.22 | 0.57% |
wNEAR + LSTs equal $148,758,008.66 (93.75%). Non-NEAR, non-LST collateral equals $9,915,309.16 (6.25%), including only $3.57M of stablecoins out of $129.37M in chain-wide stablecoin supply.
$30.71M stNEAR in Burrow (34.93% of Meta Pool's $87.93M TVL) + $50.01M LiNEAR in Burrow (89.48% of LiNEAR's $55.90M TVL) = $80,725,695.55 in identifiable position overlap (rNEAR's $56.49M is excluded from this exact overlap sum due to blended pool accounting).
$186.47M on Nov 2, 2026 (up from $119.21M on Jan 1, 2026 and $157.15M on Nov 2, 2025, but 61.3% below the $481.72M May 2022 peak).
170,155,000 (PV 80), Block 172,747,000 (PV 81), and Closing Block 222,740,000 (PV 86, 1,310,627,218.40 NEAR).
00:00 UTC observations from 2025-11-03 to 2026-11-02, nominal USD TVL rose +19.36% ($156.23M → $186.47M; and +29.55% from Nov 4 / +56.41% YTD), whereas NEAR-equivalent TVL fell -38.89% (71.20M → 43.51M NEAR; -42.27% from Nov 4 / -44.80% YTD). Qualification: This proves DeFi did not expand its aggregate NEAR-equivalent TVL; it does not prove physical tokens were withdrawn and sold.
circulating_tokens_supply grew by +36,916,704.06 NEAR (+2.90%), driven by two measurable components: (1) New Supply (+31.70M NEAR net issuance) and (2) Released Supply (5,294,235.69 NEAR unlocked as non-circulating locked supply fell from 7.45M to 2.16M NEAR). Qualification: Becoming liquid makes tokens available to circulate, but does not by itself establish market selling pressure.
[DATA & SQL SOURCE] DefiLlama Protocol Breakdown Cache & BigQuery Contract Call Query (`data/defi_collateral_breakdown.json` & `data/tvl_near.json`) EXPAND +
-- 1. Cached Protocol Breakdowns (`data/defi_collateral_breakdown.json` & `scripts/analyze_collateral_overlap.py`)
-- Endpoints: https://api.llama.fi/protocol/burrow | /protocol/meta-pool-near | /protocol/linear-protocol
-- Historical Chain TVL: https://api.llama.fi/v2/historicalChainTvl/NEAR (`data/tvl_near.json`)
-- 2. BigQuery Smart Contract Function Call Volume Across Core DeFi & Intents Contracts
SELECT
block_date,
receipt_receiver_account_id AS contract_account_id,
COUNT(1) AS function_call_count
FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.action_receipt_actions`
WHERE block_date BETWEEN '2026-10-27' AND '2026-11-02'
AND action_kind = 'FUNCTION_CALL'
AND receipt_receiver_account_id IN (
'intents.near', 'contract.main.burrow.near', 'meta-pool.near', 'linear-protocol.near', 'v2.ref-finance.near'
)
GROUP BY block_date, contract_account_id
ORDER BY block_date ASC, function_call_count DESC;
$80.73M figure measures identifiable overlap across reported stNEAR and LiNEAR positions in Burrow, not an exact ecosystem-wide deduplicated TVL figure.
Validator Distribution, Stake Concentration & Consensus Thresholds
Auditing the active validator set at Block 222,861,199 (Epoch 4931, 2026-11-03T11:03:07Z) across 375 active accounts (100 block producers and 275 chunk-only producers) staking 593,276,081.48 NEAR.
Across the 375 active validator accounts staking 593.28M NEAR (45.27% of total supply) at block 222,861,199, stake is heavily concentrated among top pools (Gini = 0.8377; descriptive HHI = 214.62), with 9 accounts—or 5 to 7 attributed entities—holding the more-than-one-third (>33.4%) stake threshold capable of stalling consensus liveness.
34.09% (202.27M NEAR, crossing the >33.4% liveness fault threshold). The top 27 accounts hold 66.91% (crossing the >66.7% two-thirds supermajority stake threshold).
>33.4% of stake (9 accounts / 7 entities in Scenario A / 5 entities in Scenario B) is the liveness fault threshold capable of halting finality, whereas >66.7% (27 accounts / 24 / 20 entities) represents two-thirds supermajority stake concentration.
| Rank | Validator Pool Account ID | Active Stake (NEAR) | Pool Share | Cumulative Share | Relative Stake Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| #01 | astro-stakers.poolv1.near | 33,267,588.12 | 5.61% | 5.61% | |
| #02 | figment.poolv1.near | 27,907,298.86 | 4.70% | 10.31% | |
| #03 | ledgerbyfigment.poolv1.near | 22,953,064.76 | 3.87% | 14.18% | |
| #04 | staked.poolv1.near | 21,018,639.85 | 3.54% | 17.72% | |
| #05 | binancenode1.poolv1.near | 20,129,097.90 | 3.39% | 21.12% | |
| #06 | bitwise_1.poolv1.near | 19,942,369.03 | 3.36% | 24.48% | |
| #07 | sumerian.poolv1.near | 18,774,938.56 | 3.16% | 27.64% | |
| #08 | zavodil.poolv1.near | 17,933,041.45 | 3.02% | 30.66% | |
| #09 | bitwise_2.poolv1.near | 16,881,803.55 | 2.85% | 33.51% | |
| #10 | liver.pool.near | 16,258,477.93 | 2.74% | 36.25% | |
| #11 | cnear-1.poolv1.near | 15,889,560.16 | 2.68% | 38.93% | |
| #12 | cnear-3.poolv1.near | 15,877,906.41 | 2.68% | 41.61% |
[RPC SOURCE] Mainnet Validator Set Snapshot & Nakamoto Recalculation Script (`data/validator_metrics.json` & `scripts/recalculate_nakamoto.py`) EXPAND +
// 1. Mainnet JSON-RPC Validator Query (Snapshot at Block 222,861,199, Epoch 4931, 2026-11-03T11:03:07Z)
curl -s -X POST https://rpc.mainnet.near.org -H "Content-Type: application/json" -d '{
"jsonrpc": "2.0", "id": 1, "method": "validators", "params": [null]
}'
// Active accounts: 375 (100 block producers + 275 chunk-only producers; minimum seat price: 11,000.00 NEAR)
// Active stake: 593,276,081.48 NEAR (45.27% of 1,310,627,218.40 NEAR supply; 54.73% supply not in active stake)
// Re-verify locally: python scripts/recalculate_nakamoto.py
222,861,199 (Protocol Version 86) sets max_inflation_rate = [1, 40] (2.5%). While HSP-029 (proposing a reduction toward 1.6%) passed governance voting, Security Council review, the 90-day grace period, and validator upgrade adoption remain necessary before activation. Entity grouping Scenario A (7 liveness entities, 35.51% cumulative stake) uses high-confidence brand strings; Scenario B (5 liveness entities, 34.59% cumulative stake) includes broader heuristic clusters and is presented strictly as a sensitivity bound.
Data Provenance, Reproducibility & Analytical Boundaries
Every metric in this terminal and in THESIS.md is bound to a cached raw file in data/ and rebuilt deterministically via python rebuild.py.
| Analytical Domain | Primary Source & Cached Artifact | Measurement Window | Exact Calculation / Formula | Verification Status & Scope Limitation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Derived Gross Issuance & Net Supply Expansion | BigQuery blocksdata/bq_annual_supply_checkpoints.csv data/supply_checkpoints.json |
Nov 03, 2025 – Nov 02, 2026 (Blocks 170,983,214 to 222,791,207; 365d) |
Net = Close - Open = +31,700,464.54 NEARDerived Gross = Net + Burn = 32.14M–32.31M NEAR |
Verified Empirical Derived Gross Issuance is an accounting identity by construction ( Net + Burn), not an independent epoch-mint query. |
| 2. Execution & Tx-Conversion Gas Burns | BigQuery execution_outcomes & transactionsdata/bq_annual_gas_burned.csv data/bq_contract_burn_attribution.csv |
Nov 03, 2025 – Nov 02, 2026 (365d; 3.398B outcomes / 722.13M txns) |
Exec: 569,180.84 NEAR (`intents.near`: 24,213.13 / 4.25%)Tx-Conv: 44,122.89 NEAR (Non-overlapping tables; 70% net floor = 442,549.47 NEAR) |
Verified Empirical Allium's $1,202,380 series tracks gross fees before the 30% contract reward; daily mean abs diff is 2.03% due to intraday pricing. |
| 3. Intents Fees, 230d Buyback-Vault Ledger & Storage | BigQuery action_receipt_actions & account_changesdata/bq_buybacks_full_history.csv data/bq_account_storage_balances_365d.csv |
Vault: Mar 18 – Nov 03, 2026 (230d) Storage: Nov 03, 2025 – Nov 02, 2026 (365d) |
Vault Inflows: 2,175,721.49 NEAR (76.18% intents.near + 23.44% DAO transfer)intents.near Storage: 32.64K → 132.20K NEAR (+99,563.55 NEAR) |
Full Onchain History Measures buyback-vault accumulation, not confirmed open-market buybacks; DAO transfer ( 510,068 NEAR) moves existing reserves. |
| 4. DeFi TVL (USD vs. NEAR-Equivalent) & Overlap | DefiLlama & CoinGecko 00:00 UTC Seriesdata/defi_collateral_breakdown.json data/value_capture_365d_analysis.json |
Matched 365d: Nov 03, 2025 – Nov 02, 2026 (Exact 00:00:00 UTC timestamps) |
Endogenous share: 93.75%; Overlap: $80.73MMatched 365d TVL: 71.20M → 43.51M NEAR (-38.89%; -42.27% from Nov 4; -44.80% YTD) |
Third-Party Breakdown Shows DeFi did not expand in NEAR-equivalent terms despite +19.36% (+56.41% YTD) USD rise; does not prove token selling. |
| 5. Circulating Supply & Validator Concentration | BigQuery circulating_supply & RPC validatorsdata/bq_circulating_supply_365d.csv data/validator_metrics.json |
Circulating: 365d (Nov 2025 – Nov 2026) Validators: Block 222,861,199 |
Circulating Expansion: +36,916,704.06 NEAR (+2.90% = +31.70M new + 5.29M unlocked)Active stake: 593.28M NEAR (45.27%); Gini = 0.8377 |
Verified Onchain Distinguishes New Supply and Released Supply from market Selling Pressure (which circulating data does not establish). |