NEAR PROTOCOL // QUANTITATIVE ECONOMIC AUDIT
Track 02: Investment Thesis (id: thesis) · Empirical Onchain Monograph
Measurement Window: Nov 03, 2025 – Nov 02, 2026 UTC · Built 2026-11-03T20:47:24Z

Application Volume vs. Token Dilution: Auditing Economic Value Capture on NEAR Protocol

Central Research Question Section 01 – 12
“Is NEAR capturing enough economic value from the activity it facilitates to strengthen its long-term token economics?”
Institutional Investment Assessment NEUTRAL / STRUCTURAL CAUTION

NEAR’s ecosystem growth is not yet translating into clearly demonstrated token value capture. Across the full 365-day empirical window, total token supply expanded by +31,700,464.54 NEAR (+2.48%) and liquid circulating supply expanded by +36,916,704.06 NEAR (+2.90%) (incorporating 5,294,235.69 NEAR released from non-circulating lockups). Against this expansion, all-shard receipt execution burns totaled 569,180.84 NEAR (plus 44,122.89 NEAR in non-overlapping transaction-conversion burns, or 613,303.73 NEAR combined gross gas burned), offsetting between 1.377% and 1.898% of derived gross issuance (32.14M–32.31M NEAR). Meanwhile, buybacks.multisignature.near accumulated 2,175,721.49 NEAR in lifetime inflows (76.18% from intents.near sweeps and 23.44% from a Sputnik DAO treasury transfer), representing buyback-vault accumulation rather than confirmed open-market buybacks, with 0 tokens burned.

Derived Gross Issuance 365d Accounting
32,269,645.38
88,409.99 NEAR/day · Derived as Net Supply Delta + Execution Burn (32.14M–32.31M range).
Execution Gas Burned All Shards
569,180.84
1,559.40 NEAR/day (+120.88 tx-conv) · Offsets 1.38%–1.90% of derived issuance.
Circulating Expansion +2.90% Liquid
+36,916,704.06
+31.70M new supply + 5.29M lockup release (distinct from market selling).
Buyback-Vault Inflows 230d Ledger
2,161,449.13
76.2% intents.near / 23.4% DAO · Vault accumulation, 0 burned.
NEAR-Equiv DeFi TVL 365d Matched
-38.89%
71.20M → 43.51M NEAR (Nov 3 – Nov 2) despite +19.36% USD TVL rise.
01 // Supply & Burn Accounting

Annual Protocol Issuance vs. Execution Gas Destruction

Exact 365-day accounting comparing block-header supply expansion against receipt execution outcomes (execution_outcomes.tokens_burnt) and non-overlapping transaction-conversion burns (transactions.receipt_conversion_tokens_burnt) in bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.

What This Module Shows (One Plain Sentence)

Across 365 full days from November 3, 2025 to November 2, 2026, total supply expanded by +31,700,464.54 NEAR (+86,850.59 NEAR/day) while all-shard receipt execution gas burns totaled 569,180.84 NEAR (1,559.40 NEAR/day) and non-overlapping transaction-conversion burns totaled 44,122.89 NEAR (120.88 NEAR/day), meaning gas burning offset between 1.377% and 1.898% of derived gross issuance (a 52.7:1 to 72.6:1 issuance-to-burn ratio).

365-DAY DERIVED ISSUANCE DISPOSITION TAPE: Derived Gross Issuance (Exec Baseline) = 32,269,645.38 NEAR (100.000%)
Accounting Identity (By Construction): Derived Gross = Net Delta + Burn
■ 98.236% — Net Supply Expansion: +31,700,464.54 NEAR (+86,850.59 NEAR/day)
■ 1.764% — Receipt Execution Burn: 569,180.84 NEAR (+44,122.89 NEAR tx-conversion burn)
Opening (Blk 170,983,214): 1,278,952,620.79 NEAR
Closing (Blk 222,791,207): 1,310,653,085.33 NEAR
Exhibit 1A: Annual Supply Accounting Totals (NEAR) 365-Day Totals
Derived gross protocol issuance vs. net supply expansion and execution gas burned (Nov 3, 2025 – Nov 2, 2026).
Accounting Identity & Bounds: Because Gross Issuance = Net Supply Expansion + Burn by construction, Derived Gross Issuance is 32,143,014.01 NEAR at the 70% net-execution + 100% tx-conversion burn floor (442,549.47 NEAR, 1.377% offset), 32,269,645.38 NEAR at the receipt-execution baseline (569,180.84 NEAR, 1.764% offset), and 32,313,768.27 NEAR using 100% combined gross gas burnt (613,303.73 NEAR, 1.898% offset).
Exhibit 1B: Cumulative 365-Day Trajectory (NEAR) 734 Block Checkpoints
Cumulative gross issuance, cumulative net supply addition, and cumulative execution gas burned.
Structural Divergence: For every 1.00 NEAR destroyed via base-layer execution fees across all shards, protocol issuance created 56.69 NEAR.
Exhibit 1C: Daily All-Shard Execution Gas Burned (NEAR/day) 3,397,553,688 Outcomes
Daily tokens burned across all shards (Range: 627.50 to 3,130.40 NEAR/day; Mean: 1,559.40 NEAR/day).
Peak Burn Ceiling: Even on the highest fee-burning day of the year (3,130.40 NEAR), execution gas burns offset only 3.54% of average daily gross issuance (88,409.99 NEAR/day).
Exhibit 1D: Daily Mark-to-Market Burn Value (USD) & Spot Price CoinGecko Daily Spot
Daily execution burn valued at daily closing NEAR/USD spot price ($1.83 to $7.85).
Mark-to-Market Context: Daily execution burns ranged from $1,617 to $15,820 USD/day alongside spot price fluctuations. Separately, Allium/DefiLlama reports $1.21M in 366-day gross gas fees ($3,304/day).
[SQL SOURCE] BigQuery Partition-Pruned Queries Behind Exhibits 1A – 1D (`data/bq_annual_supply_checkpoints.csv` & `data/bq_annual_gas_burned.csv`) EXPAND +
-- Query 1A: Daily Opening & Closing Supply Checkpoints (734 rows; 2025-11-02 to 2026-11-03)
WITH daily_blocks AS (
  SELECT
    block_date, block_height, block_timestamp_utc,
    CAST(total_supply AS BIGNUMERIC) / 1e24 AS total_supply_near,
    ROW_NUMBER() OVER(PARTITION BY block_date ORDER BY block_height ASC) AS rn_first,
    ROW_NUMBER() OVER(PARTITION BY block_date ORDER BY block_height DESC) AS rn_last
  FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.blocks`
  WHERE block_date BETWEEN '2025-11-02' AND '2026-11-03'
)
SELECT block_date, block_height, block_timestamp_utc, total_supply_near,
       IF(rn_first = 1, 'DAY_OPEN', 'DAY_CLOSE') AS checkpoint_type
FROM daily_blocks WHERE rn_first = 1 OR rn_last = 1 ORDER BY block_height ASC;

-- Query 1B: Daily All-Shard Execution Gas Burned (365 rows; 2025-11-03 to 2026-11-02)
SELECT
  block_date,
  COUNT(1) AS execution_outcome_count,
  SUM(gas_burnt) / 1e12 AS total_tgas_burnt,
  SUM(CAST(tokens_burnt AS BIGNUMERIC)) / 1e24 AS total_tokens_burnt_near
FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.execution_outcomes`
WHERE block_date BETWEEN '2025-11-03' AND '2026-11-02'
GROUP BY block_date ORDER BY block_date ASC;
Evidence Boundary & Qualification: The execution gas query sums tokens_burnt across all receipt execution outcomes in crypto_near_mainnet_us.execution_outcomes (3,397,553,688 outcomes); it does not claim independent measurement of slashing penalties or non-execution burn mechanisms. In addition, the earlier Report 1 checkpoints (Opening Block 170,935,000 at 1,278,926,787.51 NEAR, reported in Report 1 tables; Closing Block 222,740,000 at 1,310,627,218.40 NEAR, cached in data/supply_checkpoints.json; and Post-Halving Block 171,000,000 at +86,816.32 NEAR/day over 364.545 days) are preserved in Exhibit 3B. Active mainnet consensus operates under Protocol Version 86 (burnt_gas_reward = 0.30; HSP-027 / PV 88 is in codebase but not active in consensus).
02 // Intents & Treasury Audit

Cross-Chain Intents Revenue & Protocol Vault Accumulation

Evaluating official NEAR Intents fee schedules and reported 30-day revenue retention against verified onchain sweep receipts and the block 222,873,598 state snapshot of buybacks.multisignature.near.

What This Module Shows (One Plain Sentence)

While NEAR Intents reports $2.09M in 30-day retained protocol revenue (34.9% of $5.99M gross user fees on $2.45B volume) and sampled onchain receipts over October 27 to November 2, 2026 measure 10,089.05 NEAR/day swept from intents.near into buybacks.multisignature.near (which holds 2,161,449.13 NEAR as a snapshot at block 222,873,598), zero tokens have been burned from the vault.

Exhibit 2A: Intents Fee Schedule, 30d Waterfall & Vault Snapshot Reported vs. Onchain
Official fee tiers, reported 30-day fee split ($5.99M gross), and verified block 222,873,598 vault state.
Intents Fee Tier / Metric Rate / Amount Share / Status
Base Protocol Fee (Onchain Contract) 0.0001% (0.01 bps / 1 pip) Official Docs
1Click Stablecoin / Same-Asset Route (with API Key) +0.01% (1 bp) Official Docs
Standard 1Click Cross-Asset Swap (with API Key) +0.20% (20 bps) Official Docs
Reported 30-Day Gross User Fees (on $2.45B Vol) $5,990,000.00 100.0% (24.45 bps)
  ├ Solver Execution Costs & Partner appFees $3,900,000.00 65.1% (Bypass)
  └ Reported Net Protocol Retention $2,090,000.00 34.9% Retained
Vault Balance Snapshot (Block 222,873,598) 2,161,449.13 NEAR Verified Snapshot
Detected Stablecoin / FT Holdings in Vault 0.00 USD No Stablecoins
Detected Staking Pool Allocations / Vault Burns 0 Staked / 0 Burned Idle Reserve
Snapshot & Rate Distinction: The 2,161,449.13 NEAR balance is an onchain snapshot at block 222,873,598 (2026-11-03T13:03:36Z), not a full-year historical fact. Earlier Report 3 recorded 2,159,199.89 NEAR after 230.13 days of account age (9,382.52 NEAR/day balance-to-age ratio, which is not a measured historical inflow rate).
Exhibit 2B: Sampled Daily Sweeps to `buybacks.multisignature.near` 225 Sampled Txns
100% of sampled incoming transfers originate from `intents.near` (7 full days Oct 27–Nov 2 avg: 10,089.05 NEAR/day).
Treasury Accumulation vs. Supply Destruction: Across the 7 full days (Oct 27–Nov 2, 2026), 208 transfers deposited 70,623.38 NEAR (10,089.05 NEAR/day; raw float sum 70,623.85 NEAR), with 0 outgoing transfers and 0 tokens burned. Also note: intents.near locks 132,305 NEAR in storage-backed locked balance while state exists.
Exhibit 2C: Full 230-Day Lifetime Inflows to `buybacks.multisignature.near` 3,150 Inflow Txns (Mar 18 – Nov 3)
Complete BigQuery action-receipt history since account creation (`data/bq_buybacks_full_history.csv`): `intents.near` sweeps vs. DAO grant.
Buyback-Vault Accumulation (Not Confirmed Market Buybacks): Over 230 days (197 active inflow days), total inflows equaled 2,175,721.49 NEAR across 3,150 transfers: 76.18% (1,657,360.75 NEAR) came from intents.near sweeps, while 23.44% (510,068.00 NEAR) was an internal treasury transfer from 1csfundsadmin.sputnik-dao.near (moving existing NEAR between accounts without creating market demand). Total outflows: 12,025.00 NEAR (3 transfers); 0 DEX swaps, 0 staking delegations, and 0 tokens burned.
Exhibit 2D: 365-Day `intents.near` State Storage Lock & Burn Attribution BigQuery 365d Series
Daily storage-locked NEAR in `intents.near` (`data/bq_account_storage_balances_365d.csv`) and 365-day contract burn share (`data/bq_contract_burn_attribution.csv`).
Storage Collateral vs. Non-Overlapping Burns: intents.near storage-locked collateral grew from 32,639.31 NEAR (Nov 3, 2025) to 132,202.86 NEAR (Nov 2, 2026), committing +99,563.55 NEAR (+272.78 NEAR/day). Separately, in crypto_near_mainnet_us, transactions.receipt_conversion_tokens_burnt (44,122.89 NEAR) and execution_outcomes.tokens_burnt (569,180.84 NEAR, of which intents.near is 24,213.13 NEAR / 4.25%) are non-overlapping tables totaling 613,303.73 NEAR ($1,200,080.02 at 00:00 UTC prices, within -0.19% of Allium's $1,202,380.00 gross fee series, which measures gross fees before the 30% contract reward split).
[RPC & SQL SOURCE] Onchain Snapshot Verification & BigQuery Transfer Audit (`data/buybacks_txns.json` & `scripts/fetch_intents_volume.py`) EXPAND +
-- 1. Mainnet RPC Account Snapshot at Block 222,873,598 (2026-11-03T13:03:36Z)
curl -s -X POST https://rpc.mainnet.near.org -H "Content-Type: application/json" -d '{
  "jsonrpc": "2.0", "id": 1, "method": "query",
  "params": {"request_type": "view_account", "block_id": 222873598, "account_id": "buybacks.multisignature.near"}
}'
-- Result: amount = 2161449129526092621826932205769 yoctoNEAR (2,161,449.13 NEAR); locked = 0; storage_usage = 356,468 bytes
-- Fastnear FT Check: https://api.fastnear.com/v0/account/buybacks.multisignature.near/ft -> 0 stablecoins detected
-- Fastnear Staking Check: https://api.fastnear.com/v0/account/buybacks.multisignature.near/staking -> pools: [] (0 staked)

-- 2. BigQuery Native NEAR Transfer Verification into buybacks.multisignature.near
SELECT
  block_date,
  receipt_predecessor_account_id AS sender_account,
  receipt_receiver_account_id AS receiver_account,
  COUNT(1) AS transfer_count,
  SUM(CAST(JSON_EXTRACT_SCALAR(args, '$.deposit') AS BIGNUMERIC)) / 1e24 AS total_transferred_near
FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.action_receipt_actions`
WHERE block_date BETWEEN '2026-10-27' AND '2026-11-02'
  AND receipt_receiver_account_id = 'buybacks.multisignature.near'
  AND action_kind = 'TRANSFER'
GROUP BY block_date, sender_account, receiver_account
ORDER BY block_date ASC;
Evidence Boundary & Qualification: Intents 30-day volume ($2.45B) and fee figures ($5.99M gross / $2.09M retained) are reported estimates, not independently verified cash receipts. The official NEAR Intents Explorer API (/api/v0/transactions) requires a partner JWT (HTTP 400: MISSING_TOKEN when unauthenticated in scripts/fetch_intents_volume.py). Offchain CEX or OTC spot purchases cannot be proven from onchain transfer receipts alone.
03 // DeFi Capital & Overlap

DeFi TVL, Endogenous Collateral & Identifiable LST Overlap

Deconstructing third-party reported protocol breakdowns (DefiLlama) across Burrow (contract.main.burrow.near), Meta Pool (stNEAR), and LiNEAR Protocol (LiNEAR) to separate exogenous capital from recursive NEAR staking loops.

What This Module Shows (One Plain Sentence)

Third-party reported protocol breakdowns show that 93.75% ($148.76M) of Burrow's $158.67M lending collateral consists of native wNEAR and NEAR-backed liquid staking tokens, including $80.73M of stNEAR and LiNEAR that directly overlaps with reported Meta Pool and LiNEAR liquid staking positions, leaving $9.92M (6.25%) in non-NEAR, non-LST collateral.

Exhibit 3A: Burrow Collateral Composition (`contract.main.burrow.near`) Third-Party Breakdown
Total Reported Gross Collateral: $158,673,317.82 across 13 tokens (Snapshot: Nov 2–3, 2026).
Collateral Asset Class Category Reported USD Share Weight
rNEAR (Rhea / Ref Blended) Endogenous LST $56,492,431.49 35.60%
LiNEAR (LiNEAR Protocol) Endogenous LST (Overlap) $50,013,407.81 31.52%
stNEAR (Meta Pool) Endogenous LST (Overlap) $30,712,287.74 19.36%
wNEAR (Wrapped Native NEAR) Endogenous Native $11,539,881.62 7.27%
ZEC, AURORA & WOO Non-NEAR Volatile $5,442,272.22 3.43%
USDT, USDC, DAI, FRAX, sFRAX Exogenous Stablecoins $3,570,965.72 2.25%
WBTC, nBTC & ETH Exogenous Majors $902,071.22 0.57%
Endogenous Concentration: Combined wNEAR + LSTs equal $148,758,008.66 (93.75%). Non-NEAR, non-LST collateral equals $9,915,309.16 (6.25%), including only $3.57M of stablecoins out of $129.37M in chain-wide stablecoin supply.
Exhibit 3B: Identifiable LST Position Overlap in Burrow ($80.73M) Double-Counted Positions
Comparing parent LST protocol reported TVL against tokens re-deposited into Burrow.
Identifiable Overlap Formula: $30.71M stNEAR in Burrow (34.93% of Meta Pool's $87.93M TVL) + $50.01M LiNEAR in Burrow (89.48% of LiNEAR's $55.90M TVL) = $80,725,695.55 in identifiable position overlap (rNEAR's $56.49M is excluded from this exact overlap sum due to blended pool accounting).
Exhibit 3C: Third-Party Reported NEAR Chain TVL (2021–2026, USD) 1,901-Day Series
Historical nominal chain TVL (`data/tvl_near.json`): May 2022 Peak ($481.72M) vs. Nov 2, 2026 ($186.47M).
Reflexive Valuation: Reported chain TVL stood at $186.47M on Nov 2, 2026 (up from $119.21M on Jan 1, 2026 and $157.15M on Nov 2, 2025, but 61.3% below the $481.72M May 2022 peak).
Exhibit 3D: Cached Archival RPC Supply Checkpoints (PV 78 – PV 86) Cached RPC JSON
Verified block header total_supply checkpoints cached in `data/supply_checkpoints.json` (Jul 2025 – Nov 2026).
Checkpoint Provenance: Preserves cached archival RPC checkpoints including Block 170,155,000 (PV 80), Block 172,747,000 (PV 81), and Closing Block 222,740,000 (PV 86, 1,310,627,218.40 NEAR).
Exhibit 3E: 365-Day Constant-Token (`NEAR`) vs. Nominal (`USD`) Chain TVL Part 1 Price-Adjusted Audit
Dividing daily nominal USD TVL (`data/tvl_near.json`) by daily spot price (`data/coingecko_near_daily_prices.json`).
Date-Matched Price Reflexivity (Not Direct Selling Proof): Using exact matched 00:00 UTC observations from 2025-11-03 to 2026-11-02, nominal USD TVL rose +19.36% ($156.23M → $186.47M; and +29.55% from Nov 4 / +56.41% YTD), whereas NEAR-equivalent TVL fell -38.89% (71.20M → 43.51M NEAR; -42.27% from Nov 4 / -44.80% YTD). Qualification: This proves DeFi did not expand its aggregate NEAR-equivalent TVL; it does not prove physical tokens were withdrawn and sold.
Exhibit 3F: 365-Day Circulating Supply Expansion & Lockup Unlocks BigQuery `circulating_supply`
Daily circulating supply vs. non-circulating locked supply (`data/bq_circulating_supply_365d.csv`).
New Supply vs. Released Supply vs. Selling Pressure: Over 365 days, liquid circulating_tokens_supply grew by +36,916,704.06 NEAR (+2.90%), driven by two measurable components: (1) New Supply (+31.70M NEAR net issuance) and (2) Released Supply (5,294,235.69 NEAR unlocked as non-circulating locked supply fell from 7.45M to 2.16M NEAR). Qualification: Becoming liquid makes tokens available to circulate, but does not by itself establish market selling pressure.
[DATA & SQL SOURCE] DefiLlama Protocol Breakdown Cache & BigQuery Contract Call Query (`data/defi_collateral_breakdown.json` & `data/tvl_near.json`) EXPAND +
-- 1. Cached Protocol Breakdowns (`data/defi_collateral_breakdown.json` & `scripts/analyze_collateral_overlap.py`)
-- Endpoints: https://api.llama.fi/protocol/burrow | /protocol/meta-pool-near | /protocol/linear-protocol
-- Historical Chain TVL: https://api.llama.fi/v2/historicalChainTvl/NEAR (`data/tvl_near.json`)

-- 2. BigQuery Smart Contract Function Call Volume Across Core DeFi & Intents Contracts
SELECT
  block_date,
  receipt_receiver_account_id AS contract_account_id,
  COUNT(1) AS function_call_count
FROM `bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us.action_receipt_actions`
WHERE block_date BETWEEN '2026-10-27' AND '2026-11-02'
  AND action_kind = 'FUNCTION_CALL'
  AND receipt_receiver_account_id IN (
    'intents.near', 'contract.main.burrow.near', 'meta-pool.near', 'linear-protocol.near', 'v2.ref-finance.near'
  )
GROUP BY block_date, contract_account_id
ORDER BY block_date ASC, function_call_count DESC;
Evidence Boundary & Qualification: DeFi protocol valuations are classified as Third-Party Reported Protocol Breakdowns, with identifiable onchain-asset composition, not independently verified onchain USD measurements. The $80.73M figure measures identifiable overlap across reported stNEAR and LiNEAR positions in Burrow, not an exact ecosystem-wide deduplicated TVL figure.
04 // Consensus & Validators

Validator Distribution, Stake Concentration & Consensus Thresholds

Auditing the active validator set at Block 222,861,199 (Epoch 4931, 2026-11-03T11:03:07Z) across 375 active accounts (100 block producers and 275 chunk-only producers) staking 593,276,081.48 NEAR.

What This Module Shows (One Plain Sentence)

Across the 375 active validator accounts staking 593.28M NEAR (45.27% of total supply) at block 222,861,199, stake is heavily concentrated among top pools (Gini = 0.8377; descriptive HHI = 214.62), with 9 accounts—or 5 to 7 attributed entities—holding the more-than-one-third (>33.4%) stake threshold capable of stalling consensus liveness.

Exhibit 4A: Top 15 Active Validator Accounts & Cumulative Share (%) Block 222,861,199
Individual pool stake share (bars, left axis) and cumulative stake share (line, right axis).
Concentration Metrics: The top 9 individual accounts hold 34.09% (202.27M NEAR, crossing the >33.4% liveness fault threshold). The top 27 accounts hold 66.91% (crossing the >66.7% two-thirds supermajority stake threshold).
Exhibit 4B: Consensus Liveness (>33.4%) & Supermajority (>66.7%) Thresholds Entity Attribution Scenarios
Comparing individual validator accounts (n=375) against Scenario A (Branding) and Scenario B (Broad Attribution).
BFT Threshold Distinction: Under BFT finality (Doomslug / Nightshade), >33.4% of stake (9 accounts / 7 entities in Scenario A / 5 entities in Scenario B) is the liveness fault threshold capable of halting finality, whereas >66.7% (27 accounts / 24 / 20 entities) represents two-thirds supermajority stake concentration.
Rank Validator Pool Account ID Active Stake (NEAR) Pool Share Cumulative Share Relative Stake Weight
#01 astro-stakers.poolv1.near 33,267,588.12 5.61% 5.61%
#02 figment.poolv1.near 27,907,298.86 4.70% 10.31%
#03 ledgerbyfigment.poolv1.near 22,953,064.76 3.87% 14.18%
#04 staked.poolv1.near 21,018,639.85 3.54% 17.72%
#05 binancenode1.poolv1.near 20,129,097.90 3.39% 21.12%
#06 bitwise_1.poolv1.near 19,942,369.03 3.36% 24.48%
#07 sumerian.poolv1.near 18,774,938.56 3.16% 27.64%
#08 zavodil.poolv1.near 17,933,041.45 3.02% 30.66%
#09 bitwise_2.poolv1.near 16,881,803.55 2.85% 33.51%
#10 liver.pool.near 16,258,477.93 2.74% 36.25%
#11 cnear-1.poolv1.near 15,889,560.16 2.68% 38.93%
#12 cnear-3.poolv1.near 15,877,906.41 2.68% 41.61%
[RPC SOURCE] Mainnet Validator Set Snapshot & Nakamoto Recalculation Script (`data/validator_metrics.json` & `scripts/recalculate_nakamoto.py`) EXPAND +
// 1. Mainnet JSON-RPC Validator Query (Snapshot at Block 222,861,199, Epoch 4931, 2026-11-03T11:03:07Z)
curl -s -X POST https://rpc.mainnet.near.org -H "Content-Type: application/json" -d '{
  "jsonrpc": "2.0", "id": 1, "method": "validators", "params": [null]
}'
// Active accounts: 375 (100 block producers + 275 chunk-only producers; minimum seat price: 11,000.00 NEAR)
// Active stake: 593,276,081.48 NEAR (45.27% of 1,310,627,218.40 NEAR supply; 54.73% supply not in active stake)
// Re-verify locally: python scripts/recalculate_nakamoto.py
Evidence Boundary & Qualification: Active mainnet monetary policy at Block 222,861,199 (Protocol Version 86) sets max_inflation_rate = [1, 40] (2.5%). While HSP-029 (proposing a reduction toward 1.6%) passed governance voting, Security Council review, the 90-day grace period, and validator upgrade adoption remain necessary before activation. Entity grouping Scenario A (7 liveness entities, 35.51% cumulative stake) uses high-confidence brand strings; Scenario B (5 liveness entities, 34.59% cumulative stake) includes broader heuristic clusters and is presented strictly as a sensitivity bound.
05 // Methodology & Provenance

Data Provenance, Reproducibility & Analytical Boundaries

Every metric in this terminal and in THESIS.md is bound to a cached raw file in data/ and rebuilt deterministically via python rebuild.py.

Analytical Domain Primary Source & Cached Artifact Measurement Window Exact Calculation / Formula Verification Status & Scope Limitation
1. Derived Gross Issuance & Net Supply Expansion BigQuery blocks
data/bq_annual_supply_checkpoints.csv
data/supply_checkpoints.json
Nov 03, 2025 – Nov 02, 2026
(Blocks 170,983,214 to 222,791,207; 365d)
Net = Close - Open = +31,700,464.54 NEAR
Derived Gross = Net + Burn = 32.14M–32.31M NEAR
Verified Empirical
Derived Gross Issuance is an accounting identity by construction (Net + Burn), not an independent epoch-mint query.
2. Execution & Tx-Conversion Gas Burns BigQuery execution_outcomes & transactions
data/bq_annual_gas_burned.csv
data/bq_contract_burn_attribution.csv
Nov 03, 2025 – Nov 02, 2026
(365d; 3.398B outcomes / 722.13M txns)
Exec: 569,180.84 NEAR (`intents.near`: 24,213.13 / 4.25%)
Tx-Conv: 44,122.89 NEAR (Non-overlapping tables; 70% net floor = 442,549.47 NEAR)
Verified Empirical
Allium's $1,202,380 series tracks gross fees before the 30% contract reward; daily mean abs diff is 2.03% due to intraday pricing.
3. Intents Fees, 230d Buyback-Vault Ledger & Storage BigQuery action_receipt_actions & account_changes
data/bq_buybacks_full_history.csv
data/bq_account_storage_balances_365d.csv
Vault: Mar 18 – Nov 03, 2026 (230d)
Storage: Nov 03, 2025 – Nov 02, 2026 (365d)
Vault Inflows: 2,175,721.49 NEAR (76.18% intents.near + 23.44% DAO transfer)
intents.near Storage: 32.64K → 132.20K NEAR (+99,563.55 NEAR)
Full Onchain History
Measures buyback-vault accumulation, not confirmed open-market buybacks; DAO transfer (510,068 NEAR) moves existing reserves.
4. DeFi TVL (USD vs. NEAR-Equivalent) & Overlap DefiLlama & CoinGecko 00:00 UTC Series
data/defi_collateral_breakdown.json
data/value_capture_365d_analysis.json
Matched 365d: Nov 03, 2025 – Nov 02, 2026
(Exact 00:00:00 UTC timestamps)
Endogenous share: 93.75%; Overlap: $80.73M
Matched 365d TVL: 71.20M → 43.51M NEAR (-38.89%; -42.27% from Nov 4; -44.80% YTD)
Third-Party Breakdown
Shows DeFi did not expand in NEAR-equivalent terms despite +19.36% (+56.41% YTD) USD rise; does not prove token selling.
5. Circulating Supply & Validator Concentration BigQuery circulating_supply & RPC validators
data/bq_circulating_supply_365d.csv
data/validator_metrics.json
Circulating: 365d (Nov 2025 – Nov 2026)
Validators: Block 222,861,199
Circulating Expansion: +36,916,704.06 NEAR (+2.90% = +31.70M new + 5.29M unlocked)
Active stake: 593.28M NEAR (45.27%); Gini = 0.8377
Verified Onchain
Distinguishes New Supply and Released Supply from market Selling Pressure (which circulating data does not establish).